Most poker players just want to play the game without really thinking of the underlying math of the game. However, understanding variance in poker is necessary if you wish to go pro.
Since you’re reading this article, that’s likely your goal. So, to help you here’s a quick explanation of variance and how to make decisions based on it.
What Is Variance?
Variance is important when making decisions at the poker table. Variance describes the difference between expected outcomes and actual outcomes. It measures the risk one takes by playing a particular hand or strategy. When variance is high, there are more significant positive and negative swings in results, while with lower variance, the results tend to be more consistent.
Variance is calculated using several factors, including the size of the bet, the type of game being played, the number of players in the pot, and how often hands are won and lost. Generally speaking, higher-stakes games tend to have higher variance than lower-stakes games. It means that at higher stake levels, one can expect more swings in their results compared to lower stake levels.
How To Understand And Make Decisions Based On Variance
Calculate Expected Value (EV) And Pot Odds
The first step to understanding and making decisions based on variance is calculating a hand’s expected value (EV). EV is the average amount of money you expect to win or lose when playing a particular hand. Knowing your EV helps you decide whether or not a specific move is profitable.
Pot odds are another vital concept to understand when making decisions based on variance. It’s the ratio of money in the pot compared to how much you need to call a bet. If your opponent is betting $5 into a pot of $20, your pot odds are 5-to-1 (25/5). Knowing this can help you decide whether or not it’s worth calling a bet.
Understand Your Win Rate And Standard Deviation
Your win rate is the average rate you can expect to win or lose over a given period. Understanding your win rate is essential because it helps you set realistic expectations for yourself. If your win rate is too low, you may need to adjust how you play to become successful.
On the other hand, standard deviation measures how much your results deviate from the average. A higher standard deviation means that you should expect more volatility in your results, while a lower standard deviation indicates that your results should be more consistent.
Understand How Variance Affects Your Strategy
An excellent way to make sound decisions at the table is to understand variance and its effect on one’s overall poker strategy. If a player consistently plays hands with a high chance of success but is also subject to higher variance, they may experience more significant swings in their bankroll over time. On the other hand, if a player consistently plays poker hands with a lower chance of success but also experiences less variance, they may be able to preserve their bankroll more effectively. It is vital to assess how much risk one can handle and factor that into their overall strategy.
Adjust One’s Play Style
It is also critical to adjust one’s playing style based on the variance level of the game. If a player is playing in a high-variance game, they may want to tighten up their range and play fewer hands more carefully. On the other hand, if they are playing in a low-variance game, they may want to loosen up their play and take more risks with less premium hands. By understanding variance and adjusting one’s playing style accordingly, players can maximize their chances of success at the poker table.
Understand Your Own Risk Tolerance
It is also essential for players to understand their risk tolerance when it comes to variance. Some players may be more comfortable with taking more considerable risks and playing higher-variance hands, while others may prefer to play more conservatively and take on less risk.
Knowing one’s risk tolerance is critical to maximizing the chances of success at the poker table. So if you still need to, take the time to assess your risk tolerance and adjust your play accordingly.
Manage Bankrolls Wisely
Another critical component of understanding variance is bankroll management. Bankroll management involves setting aside a certain amount of money to play poker with and then managing your bets so that you stay safe. It means betting by the expected value of hands, playing only a few tables at a time, setting limits, and taking breaks when necessary.
Analyze Results
Analyzing the results of your play is vital to understanding variance. By studying the outcomes of your hands and seeing how they relate to the expected values you calculated before playing, you can get a better sense of variance in poker. This will help you make more informed decisions about which hands to play and how much money to put in the pot. It will also help you make better decisions in the future and help you become a more successful poker player.
Track Your Results
Once you understand, tracking your results over time is essential. This helps you determine how often you are winning and losing with each hand and how much variance is present in the game. This will give you an understanding of the game’s volatility and help you make better decisions with each hand.
By understanding variance and tracking your results, you can make better decisions at the poker table and maximize your chances of success. Variance can be tricky to understand, but with the right knowledge, it can be used to your advantage.
In Conclusion
Variance is part of the mechanics, and understanding how it affects one’s overall strategy is essential to improving your poker game. By having a good idea of the likelihood of winning each hand, assessing your risk tolerance, managing your bankrolls wisely, tracking your results, and analyzing the outcomes of your hands, you can use variance to your advantage and maximize your chances of success at the poker table.